George M. Brenner
Join us for an interesting presentation looking at the future of energy production with a world view and examining how alternative energy sources along with conservation can mean a clean future and healthy environment.
World Runs Out of Oil is not a headline you will likely see in your newspaper. In fact, oil will probably be produced in some quantity throughout this century and into the next. However, many experts think that world oil production will peak in the next decade, if it hasn’t already, and decline continuously thereafter. New oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s and production is expected to follow the same pattern about 45 years later. Natural gas production may also peak and decline in the not-too-distant future.
The demand for oil and gas continues to rise as China and other developing nations increase their energy requirements. As world oil production declines in the face of rising demand, you don’t have to be an economist to predict the future cost of gasoline and everything dependent on oil and gas: plastics, pharmaceuticals, chemical fertilizer, most of the food we eat, and much else.
The political, environmental, and personal consequences of oil depletion are highly uncertain. As with many controversial topics, views tend to become polarized. The “cornucopians” or “techno-optimists” believe that technological developments will enable a smooth transition to alternative sources of energy as oil is depleted. Others say that technology is not the same as energy, and believe that we will have a very rough road ahead as we seek to cope with insufficient oil for transportation, agriculture, and heating. In between, some analysts think that a combination of energy conservation and increased reliance on alternative energy sources may spare us from political and economic collapse, world-wide famine, energy wars, and other unpleasant possibilities.
Environmentalists need to be informed about alternative energy sources in order to make good personal choices and effectively influence policy makers. Our most abundant alternative energy source in North America is coal, yet it may also be the most damaging to the environment (think acid rain, air pollution, and global warming). Nuclear is touted by many as a “clean” replacement for natural gas-powered electricity generation, but nuclear is not something many people feel warm and fuzzy about.
If we don’t like coal or nuclear then we might want to campaign for renewable energy sources. Wind energy already provides a significant amount of electricity in Europe and is starting to make a difference in the U.S. Solar has good potential for making electricity but is still quite expensive. Biofuels such as bio-diesel may help reduce the demand for oil. But here’s the rub: critics say that it takes more energy, mostly from cheap oil, to make wind turbines, solar cells, biofuels, and hydrogen than these sources provide. The same goes for oil derived from oil shale and sand. In other words, when we run low on cheap oil, can we afford these alternatives? For now, keep your eye on thin-film photovoltaic cells made via a nanotechnology process that could make solar derived electricity more affordable. And remember the mantra: conservation, c o n s e r v a t i o n, c o n s e r v a t I o n.
Biographical sketch
George M. Brenner has been a Sierra Club member since 1969, and serves as a docent at the Nature Conservancy’s Tallgrass Prairie Preserve. He received a pharmacy degree and Ph.D. in pharmacology from the University of Kansas, and has authored a pharmacology textbook and a number of book chapters and research publications. After many years in higher education, he retired from Oklahoma State University in 2003. His interests include hiking, bicycling, gardening, and landscaping with native grasses, shrubs, and wildflowers.
